The Airing of Grievances
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
A Few Thoughts On Turnout
It looks like there were at least 113 million votes cast this election day, which is 7.5 million more than any other election in history. This is probably almost 60% of eligible voters. Some say that number could climb as high as 120 million votes. That is a real good for American democracy.
Check out previous presidential voting records here, on the incomparable Wikipedia:
1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1992, 1996, 2000.
Pretty interesting, really - you can see the results of every Presidential elction in history (along with electoral vote maps & contemporary newspaper articles) just by changing the number at the end of the web address - Here is 1792! Also, who knew that Lloyd Bentsen actually got one electoral vote? Not this guy.
Another thing to look out for - Many in the left-leaning side of the press will blame this on the "youth vote". Taking this with a grain of salt, I saw an MSNBC exit poll that estimated that 17% of all voters were under 30. Take that for what you will, but that means that approximately 19 million of the voters were under 30, the "youth vote". Now, the best estimates that most people could come up with on the "youth vote" was that approximately 20 million would vote, so missing that number by a million is real good. While it broke pretty convincingly for Kerry (55%), it wasn't nearly enough to push Kerry over the top. In fact, if demographic trends held true, Kerry would have needed another 35 million "youth" voters to push him over the top (a 10% delta over 3.5 votes). Even though alot of pundits will tell you this, Kerry's defeat is not the fault of the youth voter at all.
Nope, Bush won this election in the 30-44 demographic, which went to him 51%-47% - or by about 1.2 million votes.
One final note, i think that it is funny how Bush trounced Kerry in those age groups old enough to be out of consideration for a possible draft. Something to think about.